2024 General Election Turnout

These estimates are of 9:00pm on Thursday, November 21 and will continue to be revised as more data become available. Understand that most vote-by-mail states are still receiving ballots postmarked by Election Day. In addition to these states, some states are still counting mail and provisional ballots. Initial uncertainty of turnout is typical for every election.

Some states are reporting final or certified results. If turnout is reported to the single digits that is a sign a state has made a final report. However, this is not guaranteed since I estimate total ballots cast from reported presidential votes for some states. The data file in the Election Lab data archive includes links to all states election results reporting sites.

Presented here are turnout rates for those eligible to vote, sometimes referred to as the voting-eligible population or VEP.

The numerator for these VEP turnout rates is the total number of ballots counted (not votes for president), as reported by election officials. Until election officials certify their election results these numbers are estimated.

The denominator for these VEP turnout rates is constructed by estimating the voting-age population or VAP (everyone age 18 and older residing in the United States). Ineligible populations are subtracted from the VAP consisting of non-citizens and felons (depending on state disenfranchisement laws). Eligible overseas voters are added to the national VEP estimates only as no reliable method exists to apportion these eligible voters to states.

Data used to construct the voting-eligible turnout rates are provided below. For more information on the sources (including links to all states’ election results and outstanding ballot reports) and methods used to construct these VEP turnout rates, please see the documentation available on the Election Lab data archive.